Currently no one doubts that Donald Trump is heading for the Republican Party presidential nomination in the upcoming US elections. Just a few weeks ago, the most reputable experts denied any possibility to “that multibillionaire clown” whom they considered a farcical element compatible with the electoral show in the model of representative democracy that the US has been trying to impose on the world. Almost every one took it for granted that, sooner rather than later, Trump would abandon the race to make way for more “serious” candidates.

Only a few insisted that “in the US of America everything is possible” mentioning similar antecedents such as Nixon, Reagan and George W. Bush Jr.

Now observers of all wakes, even Trump’s bitter rivals, are predicting that he will triumph in most March primaries and that it will be virtually impossible to deny him the nomination.

Trump has left behind –after months of campaigning– candidates as important in the national political panorama as Jeb Bush, the former Florida governor and son and brother of US presidents, as well as a long list of governors, senators and prominent names in politics and finance. Only remaining in the race with any chance of getting the Republican nomination: Texas Senator Ted Cruz, and Florida Senator Marco Rubio; both children of Cuban immigrants promoted by the most reactionary sectors of US politics.

So far, Senator Cruz has been the only candidate for the Republican nomination to defeat Trump in the polls –narrowly in Iowa. After that, Cruz has had to be content with third place, always very close to Senator Rubio, who reached second place in recent primaries. As for Trump, although he came in second in Iowa, he has won with high percentages in the remaining contests.

Particularly striking is the way by which Trump –the wealthiest presidential aspirant in recent decades— has become precisely the candidate who enjoys a higher degree of media attention and advertising, without having to spend money on propaganda. His image appears on TV practically all day long –morning, noon and night– without having to invest a cent, although he is constantly criticized and even denigrated by reporters and commentators.

And, the more outrageous and obscene his statements, the more his popularity increases.

Although Trump has become the almost inevitable candidate for the most conservative party of the two that dominate US politics, he cannot be said to be an absolute reactionary, because he has favored both conservative and liberal causes in different situations. It is said that he has financially contributed more to the electoral campaigns of Democrats than to those of Republican candidates.

According to the well-informed US-based Dominican historian and essayist Marcos Antonio Ramos, “If Trump becomes President, the Republican Party will only have in the White House an occasional supporter; a ruler who will not be subject to the parliamentary leaders of his party. His would be a Trump administration, not a Republican administration. “

According to Ramos, “Trump speaks well of Russian President Vladimir Putin, is not opposed to the normalization of relations with Cuba, and offers to solve the Israeli-Palestinian dispute through compromise … “More mysterious is the fact that being a Republican … and despite being a billionaire, his words are particularly attractive to poor white people without many academic credentials. Underestimating Trump would be wrong and foolish!“

“Trump attracts not only conservatives, but also “moderates” and many Democrats. His main problem will be –after becoming the presidential candidate– the avalanche of African-American, Latino and strongly-militant Democratic voters who would disregard their differences with the likely Democratic candidate, Hillary Clinton, to prevent the triumph of Trump.“

On February 27, in the South Carolina Democratic primaries, Clinton received more support from African-American voters than that obtained by Barack Obama in the 2008 primaries.

The November elections will be hotly contested. Both Trump and Clinton have a chance of victory. And the impact of the polarizing effect left by the current campaign on the political future of the country with the entry into the political arena of the popular and socialist alternative brought by Bernie Sanders cannot be measured yet.

March 8, 2016.

- Manuel E. Yepe http://manuelyepe.wordpress.com/

A CubaNews translation. Edited by Walter Lippmann.