The Debt, the IMF/WB
In the context of solidarity socioeconomy
20/11/2003
- Opinión
The debt issue has returned to remind humanity that the
solutions posed during the 1980s have been to no avail. The
result of the 1980s crisis was the transformation of the World
Bank (WB) as a political party that financed Governments, gave
it technicians and a political platform to follow in order to
be elected or reelected, as long as the road map followed. It
was a political party mainly of the US Treasury with the
support of the G7 countries altogether for the benefit of
transnational capital and strengthening global capitalism that
was taking on a new shape because of the very low rates of
increase in capital productivity, in face of rapid
technological change and increasing competition. The
consequence of this was increased financial activity,
speculation and capital mobility in order to compensate for
lack of real sector profits. This required a new set of rules
of the game for global capitalism than would help to
concentrate income that has had as end result a financial
bubble that burst with the same consequences as in previous
periods, 1930, 1870 and the 1820s. Some elements perceived
are rapid transformation of net resources transfers from
positive to negative, a depression in the prices of raw
materials, and an increase of the cost of capital for
developing countries as a result of increasing country risk
while undergoing a world recession/depression, a world
deflation and the recognition that the productive paradigm
based on knowledge has reached a turning point.
The symptoms of the problem, we could call it the Millennium
Crisis, are expressed by the data from the collapse in stock
exchange indexes. The Tokyo Stock Exchange being the first to
fall starting in 1990, all major bourses have seen sharp drops
ranging from 30% (Dow Jones, New York December 1999 to April
2003) to 75% (Tokyo Nikkei Index June 1997, the Russian Crisis
1998, The Brazilian Crisis 1999, the Argentinean Crisis 2001.
The consequence of this on the result of the world can be
viewed in the failure of the promises made by the IMF/WB and
other orthodox economists that assured that the implementation
of what we know as neoliberal polices would result in an
increase in the rate of growth, a reduction of external credit
dependence, a surplus in trade and an increase in domestic
savings. The conditions set for this were that the developing
countries follow the ten points indicated by the Washington
Consensus plus one further point added by the Theory of Public
Choice in terms of reducing the State to as little as
possible. Williamson stated recently that he did not
appreciate that as a recommendation in the list of the
policies to be pursed, which had consensus in 1989. The
reduction of the State is present in the 1987 World
Development Report of the WB as part of the set of policies
that were later discussed for the Consensus.
The debt problems must be then seen as an instrument for the
introduction of policies and an extortion of Governments into
following them, if they resisted. Once agreed upon, the
financial support appeared swiftly. This is called coercion
in legal terms. The solution sough under coercive treatment
did not appear, however, and neither did growth recover a
stable rate, nor would whatever real growth occurred if the
money generated from privatizing public enterprises not been
recycled inside the domestic economy in the form of current
expenditures and some investment. This has given way to
massive corruption known in the field as new corruption,
phenomenon that has been studied in Russia, China, Viet Nam,
Czech Republic and Peru. This is a phenomenon were economic
growth results from the use of funds from the central
government outside the normal appropriations procedure, as
normal Government expenditure must pass. Instead what
happened was that the population lost faith in the policies
and the possibility of implementing them further has reached a
limit. There exists a governance problem now, as more and
heads of State try reaffirming their commitments to the
policies signed with the IMF/WB with the effect of losing
their representation. The cases of Bolivia, Ecuador, and Peru
today, or the counter example of Lula being elected in Brazil
in the hope of something new that is not happening, or the
election of Kirchner in Argentina resulting from displacement
of the three heads of State by the population out in the
streets, makes the case.
In that light, it must be recognized that the debt issue and
the economic policy issue attached to it, are back on the
table. From the point of view of a new solidarity on a socio
economia solidaria, the debt could be used once again for the
same purpose, except this time for policies that have proper
consensus by the majority of the world population: Those that
center on economic, social and cultural rights. The argument
for this is that Governments must be held accountable and
civil society can monitor conditionalities placed by the
population reflected in international agreements. The
instrument to this end to be used, would be again the debt.
This requires a reform of the WB/IMF and a change in their
charters, were respect to human rights in all its dimensions
come in front. Their failure during the 1980s and 1990s as
well as their support of dictatorships in the name of the
neutrality of technicians and efficiency, warrants the request
for the reform of these institutions. They passed from
Project based lending to Policy based lending in the mid 1980s
without recognizing their failure in project based lending and
the problems they had generated with them. The next step is
from Policy based lending to Human rights based lending with
recognition of the mistakes made and the failure of the
promise to be made real. The existing globalization resulting
from these are rejected en masse in the streets everywhere.
The failure of the IMF in controlling inflation during the
1980s while pressing the Latin American and African
Governments to transfer resources to the North, thus further
impoverishing them. Their renewed failure currently,
supporting Argentina and other Governments into issuing new
expensive bonds for the payment of old Brady cheap bonds is
leading them into default situations. This is the case of
Argentina which was supported in its fixed exchange policy by
the IMF who gave them a certificate of good behavior in order
to float tens of thousands of dollars in bonds in New York
during 2001, support that was kept until one week prior to
default. This calls for a request of a major reform of the
IMF. The success held in the field of controlling inflation
is not accompanied with success in managing the external debt.
This failure is more evident now with the Millennium Crisis in
place.
The weakness of the United States hegemony and the breakup of
the G7 monolithic unity around the US middle east policies,
reforms may be introduced in the IFIs that may reflect the
need of the world population. The first one is to recognize
the debt problem has been dealt in such a way that the results
so far are that countries continue to have a debt problem but
that now the institutions created for this solution do not
allow renegotiations or have any flexibility to bypass the
international rigidities that are pressing both developing and
developed nations, alike.
Debt management and its newly created inflexibility. The
application of the Brady Plan after 1989 for middle income
countries led to the conversion of debt held in floating rate
notes into bonds at a value that included the capitalization
of all unpaid interest between 1981 and 1990, more or less to
seventeen countries. For these seventeen countries, the debt
had more than tripled just as a result of the capitalization
of interest given the high rates in the United States during
the early part of the 1980s. The debt was converted into
bonds including amounts far too high to be sustainable or
ethical, without any revision as to the quality of the loans
leading to the recognition of what are considered odious debts
(related to weapons sales to dictatorships) and corrupt loans
(including those for projects that never worked). Bonds are
not renegotiable and contrary to what orthodox theory
sustains, new loans are granted to pay off old loans and the
interest rate has started to increase for countries that do
this leading the well known path already followed during the
1980s into cease payments and open conflict between debtors
and creditors. Creating a new environment for debt
negotiations is the first step for another world the Club of
Paris and the Club of London have both failed as negotiations
is the first step for another world the Club of Paris and the
Club of London have both failed as negotiation spaces and
conditions imposed by them for the repayment of their debt.
At the same time, it is necessary to realize that in a global
world, a global low must exist for financial institutions.
Currently creditors have tier own law and mostly use the New
York and London law for international credits while at the
same they promote globalization. So they believe
globalization is fine as long as everything is globalized
except the rules of the game. This cannot continue in to the
future of the capacity to impose the law will be lost or
further coercive mechanisms must be developed.
The IBASD (International Board of Arbitration for Sovereign
Debt) would come to replace both the London and Paris Clubs
and would include the debts of al multilateral institutions as
well, in such a way that no free riders would exist and all
creditors would have the same terms for the payment of their
debts, which is essential for the proper functioning of an
international financial community. What has occurred so far
is that Governments and Banks renegotiated their debts during
the 1980s and during the 1990s, when debtor Governments face
problem, they borrow more money form multilateral institutions
that in turn do not reschedule debts. The situation as it
stands now is that money owed ion bonds cannot be rescheduled,
that owed to G7 Governments cannot be rescheduled either due
to the terms of the exit agreements signed in the last Club of
Paris agreement during the 1990s and multilateral debt cannot
be rescheduled either. The rigidities of the existing system
is a new negotiating space composed of jurors that represent
creditors and debtors and that have as a responsibility that
of revising all debts and pointing out the invalid ones to
take them to the International Penal Court for due processor
devolving them to the creditors because they are invalid, thus
leaving the real debt, that is legally sustainable to be
rescheduled and resized to be made payable. The elements
provided by Prof. Raffer are to be taken into account in the
sense that social expenditures must be protected and civil
society must be present and represented at the Court.
Those countries referred to as HIPC countries should also use
this mechanism and their adjustment of the size of the debt be
done in proportion to the debt payment capacity. If this
includes 100% write off because the economy is under 700 USD
per capita, the write off should be done using as the only
possible set of conditions those described above. The write
off would be after revising the validity of the debt.
The new policies after revising the lessons from history, it
is clear that economic growth in order to be sustainable must
be balanced and that the domestic market is as important as
the external market. The external market should generate the
foreign exchange required for the purchase of goods not
produced at locally. Mostly, and this is the gist if the
issue. Exports cannot be of primary goods because the
oversupply of primary goods leads into a depression of world
prices such as that existing in the latter part of the 1990s.
This in turn gave way to a price race to the bottom in term of
who produces more, which in turn results in ecological as well
as economic disasters. The beneficiaries are of those firms
who consume raw materials and produce value added for export.
The physical terms of exchange have also changes dramatically
over the last decade as a result of this.
Domestically, the tax pressures must increase to such an
extent that foreign credit used only marginally. Foreign loans
are used to finance Government expenditure and investment in
face of small tax recollections. Mostly the use of foreign
savings only helps the foreign lender and not the borrower.
Mostly Government-to-Government loans are used to promote the
exports of goods from G7 countries to developing countries but
they do not always correspond to improvements in the
development capacity in the borrowing country. More recently
Policy based Lending has been the supply of free resources for
the Government as long as they follow the conditions applied
by the loan. IN this way the WB has financed political
campaigns, for example, in countries where reelections are
possible or where the ruling party wants to stay in power.
WTO and trade. Side be side, the importance of the domestic
market must be accompanied with a new export base that
includes value added. This must come alongside a change in the
functioning of the WTO so that protection to valued added
exports is removed and developing economies can enter the
leading markets. Equally, the 184 economies that do not belong
to the G7 can trade amongst themselves. The G7 countries must
be made to follow the same rules they apply to all other
countries. The Organic agricultural production is the major
primary export that must be preserved vis a vis GM production
and simetry must be preserved at all costs in these
negotiations.
The race to the bottom in wages in order to compete with China
must be put to an end with a specialization in each country
that complements the order lines of production existing in the
country, thus creating cluster economies for the benefit of
domestic capital accumulation. Wages must be brought in line
with the fight against poverty. Miserable wages produce
misery. Only improvements in general productivity though the
production of value added will assist in the continuous
improvement of wages.
Finally, the debt, the IMF/WB, WTO and trade issues, cannot be
seen apart from economic policy, debt justice, the fight on
corruption and a new global democracy. In the end the new
world will start when this changes.
* Oscar Ugarteche. Pontifical Catholic University of Peru.
Workgroup on a Solidarity Socioeconomy-Alliance 21
Preparatory meeting for the Launching of the Workshop on
International Regulations with the context of a Solidarity
Socio Economy in the Era of Neoliberal Globalization-Tokyo,
October 9-11, 2003.
https://www.alainet.org/fr/node/108839?language=es
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