Photo: RT.com

Once the word was out about the crash of the Russian aircraft in the Sinai desert, no one could avoid thinking of the explosion of the Malaysian aircraft in July of 2014, over Ukraine. On that occasion, although it was known there could have been deployment of a system of BUK anti-aircraft missiles able to hit an aircraft flying at 33,000 feet, a weapon that only the Kiev army possessed, there was nonetheless insistence in blaming both Moscow and the separatist militias, and the facts still remain in doubt. Could the same thing occur in this case?

According to indications, and everything points to this, the fall of the Kogalymavia aircraft on Saturday, October 31, was the product of an attack. If so, those who committed it must be rejoicing on two counts.

The 224 bodies spread over an area of 13 kilometres of the Sinai desert, over and above humanistic considerations, is a hard blow for Moscow, and perhaps even harder for Cairo.

Self-interested and speculative critiques against President Vladimir Putin are appearing from his local rivals, claiming that the attack is a retaliation for Russian intervention in the Syrian conflict.

But without doubt the crisis is much more critical for Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi, since the facts put in black and white the two most sensitive questions that mark his administration: the economic crisis and that of security.

Together with the rights for the use of the Suez canal, one of the most important sources of income for the impoverished Egyptian coffers is tourism. The decline in the tourist sector will be even more acute now, since just this year at least two incidents have contributed in this direction. Charter flight KGL 9268 had taken off 23 minutes before the crash from the international airport of the touristic city of Sharm el-Sheikh, on the shores of the Red Sea, in the Egyptian peninsula of Sinai, destined to Saint Petersburg. Sharm el-Sheikh has become the preferred destiny of thousands of Europeans, mainly Russians and British. But this “incident” follows the death of 12 tourists, among them eight Mexicans, plus ten wounded, last September, resulting from an error of the Egyptian military that had confused a caravan transporting tourists to the Oasis of Bahariya, with members of one of the terrorist organizations operating in the country. Moreover, earlier this year, Wilayat Sinai (Sinai Province), the Egyptian branch of the Islamic State (IS) had announced the decapitation of Tomislav Salopek, the executive of a French company who had been kidnapped in Cairo. And it is known that at the last minute the authorities prevented a suicide attack against the Temple of Karnak, in Luxor, one of the places with the greatest affluence of tourists in the country.

In 2010, when Egypt received 15 million tourists, tourism contributed 12% of the GDP and 15% of foreign currency income of the country. Since then, the flow has been decreasing. Last year only nine million tourists arrived and this year it looks to be even less. Unemployment is about 50%, hence Egypt cannot allow itself the luxury of losing this key source of income.

After the crash of the Russian aircraft, reservations fell and for this time of the year when the reservations curve habitually grows, it was flat. Russian travel agents reported a fall of between 30 and 50% of sales after the crash.

For Sharm al-Sheiikh, this is not the first time that it has suffered similar problems. Between 2004 and 2006 a wave of terrorist attacks shook the resort. On July 23 2005 (National Day of the Revolution of Egypt), a critical moment, some 90 tourists died and 150 were wounded after a series of seven almost simultaneous explosions in distinct parts of the city.

As we may recall, in November of 1997, at the massacre of Luxor in Deir el-Bahari on the shores of the Nile, nearly 70 tourists were assassinated by the Salafist Band Gamaa Islamiya (Islamic Group), while another 85 were wounded, the majority European and Japanese. All this has left this fundamental Egyptian industry in a critical state.

Doubts and verifications

After the disappearance from radar screens, when the flight was at 31,000 feet (9,440 metres) near the locality of al-Hasana, to the North of Sinai, an area of sharp mountainous terrain situated some 50 kilometres South of the airport where they were due to land, both Cairo and Moscow attributed the accident to a technical failure.

The Egyptian authorities affirmed some hours after that from the control of the aircraft there was word of a technical failure and a request to land at the airport of al-Arish.

Finally Hosam Kamel, the Minister of civil aviation, admitted that the crew did not even send an SOS and that suddenly the aircraft "vanished from the radar". According to Flightradar24 the web site that follows air traffic at a world level, the aircraft descended at a velocity close to 6,000 feet per minute until it disappeared from the radar.

There were 217 passengers on board, among whom were 17 minors, one of them only ten months old, and a crew of seven, all Russians except for three Ukrainians and one Belorussian.

The Wilayat Sinai group, by Twitter, in Arabic, English, French, German, Urdu and other languages claimed responsibility for the attack.

Almost confirming the version of the terrorist attack, British intelligence provided indications the following Wednesday that their information pointed to an explosive located in some part of the hold, together with the luggage. London had access to the "crucial piece of intelligence" based on intercepted communications from Salafists in Sinai.

The Egyptian Minister of Foreign affairs, Sameh Shukry, criticized the Western powers, and especially the United Kingdom, for not sharing their information on the attack, which had in any event appeared in the press.

That Friday, David Cameron not only ordered an operation for the return of 3500 British stranded in Sharm el-Sheikh, but also prohibited flights over Sinai. Later it was revealed that a British aircraft of the Thomson airline, last August, at the moment of landing in Sharm el-Sheikh, had to realize an escape manoeuvre to avoid a missile that passed less than 300 metres away. The explanation that London preferred to accept was an error of the army during shooting practices.

The suspension of flights affects not only the airport of Sharm el-Sheikh, but also that of Hurghada, another tourist centre on the shores of the Red Sea and also the city of Cairo.

Russia, that at the first news had accepted the version of a mechanical failure, also suspended all flights to Egypt until the investigations were finished.

Approximately 80,000 Russian citizens were on holiday in different Egyptian resorts on the Red Sea. The difference in the exchange rate compared with other tourist destinations, due to the devaluation of the ruble, has made Egypt the preferred option: one week, including air transport, accommodation and meals, can be obtained for around 500 dollars.

The operation for bringing Russian citizens home is extremely complex. Empty aircraft were sent to collect grounded passengers, with only carry-on luggage, the rest of the luggage being transported by cargo planes to Moscow, from whence they were to be sent on to their final destination.

The Egyptian government then imposed an information blackout on the international airport at Sharm el-Sheikh, denying access to journalists.

Other airlines such as Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, Qatar Airways and Flydubai among others, announced that they would not use this route until the facts were clear. Meanwhile United Airlines, the only US company that flies over the zone, affirmed that there is no need to change their routes.

Not such old acquaintances

The activity of terrorist bands in Egypt is hardly news. Already in 1966 President Nasser himself was the object of a frustrated attack, financed by Saudi Arabia, which brought various members of the Ikhwan al-Muslimun (Muslim Brothers) to the gallows, including their leader and ideologue, whose name the Takfiristas shorten today as Sayyid Qutb. In 1981 a member of the organization Gamaa Islamiya assassinated President Annuar al-Sadat in the midst of a military parade.

At the present time, in the unstable Sinai Peninsula, one of the organizations present, Wilayat Sinai, who made their bayat (loyalty oath) in November 2014, publicly engaged to "hear and obey" the chief of Daesh, Abu Bark al-Bagdadi, the self-proclaimed Khalif Ibrahim.

Before their oath they were called Ansar Beit al-Maqdis (Supporters of Jerusalem) and they represented al-Qaeda in the country. The group was formed at the beginnings of 2011, in the heat of the popular revolts in the framework of the Arab Spring, that ended the thirty-year dictatorship of Hosni Mubarak. It is estimated that they have a force of some one thousand men, veterans and new recruits from the Bedouins, who historically have been in confrontation with the central government, are experts at smuggling and highly familiar with the territory where the Army is regarded as an occupation force.

In July 2012 this organization took responsibility for blowing up a gas pipeline that supplied gas to Israel and Jordan, and a month later claimed responsibility for launching rockets against the Israeli city of Eilat.

Ansar Beit al-Maqdis was practically unknown until September of 2012, when he took charge of an attack on a frontier patrol of Tshal (the Israeli army) in an area known as Monte Jarif, in the Neguev desert. In the attack one soldier died along with three members of Ansar.

In January 2014, this group downed a military helicopter near the city of Sheij Zuwayws, in the North of Sinai. Five crew members died. Ansar Beit al-Maqdis, as he was then known, affirmed that they had employed an earth-air missile. Official sources judged that the crash of the helicopter was an accident. Some days later, a spokesman for the army, Colonel Ahmed Ali, announced the arrest of two members of the Takfirista organization related to the downing of the helicopter, implicitly recognizing the attack.

On July 16th of this year, a there was a rocket attack by members of Wilyat Sinai on an Egyptian Army frigate. There is also documentation to the effect that various militias among them have been trained in the use of anti-tank weapons (9M133 Kornet) and portable anti-aircraft missiles.

The most significant operation has been the attempted assassination of the Egyptian Minister of the Interior, Muuhamad Ibraham, in a Cairo neighbourhood, in September of the last year, that left ten people dead.

Since January 1^st 2015, the Egyptian authorities have prohibited aircraft flights below 23,000 feet (7,000 metres) over the Sinai, to prevent the situation that we are analyzing.

To date the Egyptian branch of the Islamic State has not been able to produce actions of this kind. The MANPAD missiles cannot reach an aircraft flying at 9,440 metres, as was the Russian aircraft. This would have been possible only if they had BUK anti-aircraft missiles or something similar, and men trained to operate them. The Salafist groups in the Sinai can count on the legendary Stinger (earth-air) missiles that they have employed against helicopters and aircraft flying lower than 10,000 feet. The Kogalymavia airccraft flew at 30,000 feet, hence the possibility of an explosive inside the aircraft is more probable.

The Sinai is a territory of a little over 60 thousand square kilometres. In the Southern sector it has been years since there were any actions tied to religious terrorism. Because of tourism in Sharm al-Sheikh, the city has a well articulated and well oiled security system. The Bedouin tribes of the region have benefited from tourist development.

In the central zone and especially in the North of Sinai, close to the Gaza strip, Salafist action has developed thanks to the rugged terrain. Half desert and half mountain, it has allowed for the creation of secure sanctuaries similar to the frontiers of Afghanistan or Pakistan or the centre of Yemen.

Since the overthrow of President Mohamed Morsi, under whose shadow the Muslim Brotherhood had been able to penetrate many official circles and dominate certain regions of the country, such as the North of the Sinai, hundreds of young men have been incorporated into the fundamentalist groups. Although the army controlled the urban centres and most of the roads, organizations such as the Sinai Wilayat acted and were able to make more than 200 attacks in the first half of 2015, both against the army and the police. It is estimated that nearly 400 members of both forces died in these attacks. Last July, the Salafists made an unusual operation with coordinated attacks against fifteen control points and positions of the army, in a radius of 12 kilometres in the North of the peninsula.

President al-Sisi, from the moment of his assumption, had declared the North of Sinai an area under military control, imposing a curfew, blocking access to the media and closing the Rafah pass that unites Gaza with the Sinai.

The inquiry by the authorities continues, with 47 experts (29 Egyptians, 7 Russians and 6 Frenchmen) looking to reconstruct the manoeuvres of cargo and passengers in the wreckage of the airbus 321.

They analyzed the images of the control cameras looking for "details" and questioned all of the personnel. At the beginning of this year, British intelligence had found bad maintenance of the ex-rays for detecting explosives.

They are still studying the black boxes and the remains of the fuselage to discover if this was revenge or chance.

Published in Spanish 9/11/2015

(Translated for ALAI by Jordan Bishop)

- Guadi Calvo is as Argentinian writer and journalist. He is an international analyst specialized in Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia. In Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lineainternacionalGC