To put an end to any historical cycle, the sense of change that is preeminent in that process must be definitively buried. We cannot turn the page on any epoch without digging the tomb of the factors of hope that inhabit it. That's it. Any desire for a new time has to be established on the ruins of the past. This is what can be divined beneath the geopolitical chessboard of Latin America: the desperate attempt of some social sectors to put an end to what was begun in the XXI century all across the region. Some call this (an attempt of) a conservative restoration; others the ebbing of the tide of change; while the more daring opt for "an end of the cycle".

Join this party are, in the first place, those who dream of putting a definitive end to this change of epoch that took away their power of decision. With strong will, these actors are dedicated to slowly reducing the universe of hopes and illusions forged precisely in this change of epoch. The strategy is not to discuss what happened in the past. That which was done, is done, and however they may dislike it, the objective and subjective result in favour of the majorities is clearly established. Rather, what they are attempting is to put an end to the notion that there is still much to be achieved, to improve. Around this proposition, we have today the push and pull of Latin American geopolitics. The new regional right-wing, that has now come of age, have learned that they cannot win with newspaper headlines distant from the reality that the Latin American majority now lives, that is much more inclusive, with more social rights, and more democratized levels of consumption. This does not mean that the dominant media, and the traditional partisan forces, have left off insisting with their old skills of frightening, alarming and upsetting, invoking one or another cataclysm. But what is really new and surely more at the center of the strategy opposing processes of change in Latin America, is to put an end to the myth that "we can still advance much more". The end of the cycle is sustained in an embryonic stage to make us believe that we have already done what could be done, and that there are no more conquests left to reach on the horizon.

There are attempts to propagate this thesis based on the present external restrictions that afflict many Latin American economies due to the world economic contraction. The fall in oil prices and other commodities is squeezing some countries who had managed to put in practice a sovereign economic policy with the re-appropriation of natural resources. What once sold at 100 is now selling at less than 50. That means that only half of the revenues are now coming in. What critics once called "a tail wind from behind” they should now call "a head wind against". But they don't say that. Now they prefer to use the term of (ill) fortune of the "end of a cycle", as a sort of self-fulfilling prophecy as if by bringing the jar to the well often enough it will end up broken.

To this party other sectors are added (social, political, citizenry) with a great predilection for hasty and destructive critique, and with almost nothing to propose. This space includes: 1) those who from the beginning were opposed to almost everything, thinking that change is a bed of roses without obstacles, and 2) others whose force and enthusiasm are weakened in these times in which the battles are increasingly difficult. If we may value something in the historic enemy, it is precisely their perseverance and optimism: there are political options that in spite of having lost, for example, 18 out of 19 times in 15 years, still believe that their political proposal is upheld by the social majority. This has to be taken into account when struggling against this opponent, who never tires and never throws in the towel, and goes on trying in any way possible, whether legal or not.

The pessimism reigning in some self-proclaimed “progressive” or “leftist” groups smooths the path for those who desire a conservative restoration. The times of lean cows are always handy for those who are getting off at the next stop. The growing disenchantment among our ranks fertilizes the soil for the return of caravels in their XXI century version. This would mean conceding too much to the enemy in these times of dispute. Criticism is welcome as long as it comes accompanied with a search for solutions, of motors generating new hopes, without ending up ceding to the blackmail of disenchantment.

In this point we can find the real challenge of the present geopolitical dispute: to assume that perhaps a “waiting” period is necessary, but with a common sense that is full of hope. To hope does not mean standing with ones arms crossed or throwing stones against whatever happens. It is rather a question of understanding that we are at the edge of a new stage in the political struggle in this intriguing geo-economic contest. Neither ebbing tides nor ends of a cycle; at the most attempts of a conservative restoration that has not been able to break the insurgent hegemony still under construction in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, Argentina. In this new stage, each process of change has its own political tempo, its form of confronting adversity, of overcoming different tensions and contradictions either within the block or from the outside. This is a new stage characterized by the need for new movements in order for the positions achieved to be irreversible.

What was yesterday a victory will now, fortunately, be naturalized as a right. The change of epoch demands listening to the new questions in order to avoid falling into the error of giving old answers. The upcoming months/years will serve to search for new discursive categories, new stories, new master-signifiers, new mobilizing factors and new banners to raise. Ultimately, the dispute is almost always the same, between those who call for the restoration of disillusionment with "there is no alternative" and those who will continue to engender a universe infinite with hopes, always looking tirelessly for new alternatives.

15/09/2015

(Translated for ALAI by Jordan Bishop)

- Alfredo Serrano Mancilla, Director CELAG, Doctor of Economy, @alfreserramanci

URL de este artículo: http://www.alainet.org/es/articulo/172421