1. Who's who in the Mesa de Unidad Democrática

There are fourteen parties included in the Mesa de Unidad Democrática (MUD –Democratic Unity Coalition) that have obtained parliamentary representation in the new National Assembly. Here is an x-ray of each of the opposition political forces

Primero Justicia (PJ – Justice First): 33 representatives. This is a party that appeared in the year 2000 at the regional level, coming from a civil society organization with the same name, that participated at a national level for the first time in 2003. Their main leaders are Henrique Capriles Radonski, present governor of Miranda State, who ran for the presidency in 2012 and 2013 against Hugo Chávez and Nicholas Maduro respectively; Julio Borges, member of parliament from 2005 to 2015 and Carlos Ocariz, Mayor of the Municipality of Sucre.

Although in an internal congress celebrated in 2007 the members of PJ have defined their party as of a Centre-Left tendency, it is a party that does not question the market economy.

In addition, Primero Justicia participated actively in the 2002 coup d'état against Hugo Chávez as well as in the petroleum strike of 2002-2003. 

In 2005, following the decision of the opposition not to participate in the legislative elections as a protest against the lack of trustworthiness of the Nacional Electoral Council, there was a division in Primero Justicia. Since then, a sector headed by Leopoldo López and Delsa Solórzano left the party to create their own formation.

As is the case with other political opposition groups, PJ receives international funding from various foundations and bodies, among which are the National Endowment for Democracy (NED) and USAID, as denounced by the lawyer and journalist Eva Golinger [1].

In 2012 Primero Justicia was invited to participate in the Second Edition of the Latin American Campus of FAES (Fundación para el Analisis y los Estudios Sociales), a think tank of the Spanish Partido Popular.

Together with Un Nuevo Tiempo, Acción Democrática and Avanzada Progresista, they make up the "moderate" block in MUD.

Acción Democrática (AD – Democratic Action): 26 representatives. This is one of the traditional parties in Venezuela. It was the party that alternated in power with COPEI, for more than four decades, in the period known as the "Pacto de Punto Fijo". It was originally a party with a centre-left ideology, but little by little has turned toward a social democrat position with a strong liberal bent. Nevertheless, the party continues as a member of the Socialist International. Acción Democrática has been a strong opponent of Chavism.

Since 2008 it is part of MUD and its main leader at present is Henri Ramos Allup, who will preside over the new National Assembly, after triumphing over Julio Borges, the candidate of Primero Justicia. In cables released by Wikileaks, the US Embassy in Venezuela said of Allup: "Rather than court Venezuelan voters, Ramos Allup’s principal political strategy has been to seek help from the international community". At the same time, the cables reveal numerous funding requests from the AD leadership to the United States.

Un Nuevo Tiempo (UNT – A New Time): 20 representatives. This is the party that appeared in 1999 in Zulia State -- which it has governed since 2000 -- after leaving AD, and that in 2006 positioned itself at the national level, promoting the doctrine of social democracy.

One of their main leaders was Manuel Rosales, who competed with Chávez in the 2006 presidential elections and led the opposition triumph in 2007 against the Chavista attempt to reform the Constitution. In 2002, Rosales signed the Decree that proclaimed Carmona as President of Venezuela, thus endorsing the coup d'état against Hugo Chávez. In 2009, after being accused of corruption, Rosales sought political asylum in Peru.

Voluntad Popular (VP – People’s Will): 14 representatives. It was established in 2009 as a social and political movement and in 2011 was registered strictly as a political party. Their leitmotiv is the alleged abuses of power of Chavism. Together with Vente Venezolana, Alianza Bravo Pueblo, Proyecto Venezuela and Copei, they represent the hardline wing of MUD, that is fighting to remove Nicolás Maduro from power.

Their main leader, Leopoldo López, was mayor of the municipality of Chacao and until 2006 was in the same party (Primero Justicia) as Henrique Capriles. They both stood out in the 2002 coup, in the episode of the siege against the Cuban Embassy. In 2014, he was sentenced to almost 14 years in prison, accused of being one of the principal instigators of the violent events of February 2014, known as the "guarimbas" that resulted in 43 assassinations. He was also one of the signatories, together with María Corina Machado and Antonio Ledesma, of the insurrectional plan known as "La Salida" (The Way Out). Following a meeting in Bogotá in 2011, Leopoldo López established linkswith former Colombian President Alvaro Uribe.

On numerous occasions, Voluntad Popular has expressed its rejection of the nationalization of oil company PDVSA, as well as of price controls. On the contrary, they support the market economy.

Avanzada Progresista (AP – Progressive Frontline): 3 representatives. It is a party founded in 2012, self-defined as progressive, solidarian and humanist. Contrary to the other parties of MUD, part of their members come from the PSUV.

Their main leader is Henri Falcón, governor of the State of Lara, seconded by the journalist Vladimir Villegas and assembly representative Ismael García. Consulted on the ideology of their party, Falcón responded that "it is not only of the left, but of an efficient left, a modern, moderate, progressive left like that of Lula, or that of Bachelet". In its foundational act, Avanzada Progresista rejects the exaggerated state control of the economy, and expresses belief in a participation of the State together with private initiative.

The Causa Radical (LCR – The Radical Cause): 4 representatives.  The party was founded in 1971 following a split from the Communist Party of Venezuela. They follow a doctrine of "radical democracy". In 2002 the Causa R decided to join the Coordinadora Democrática, that brought together a coalition of parties and organizations across a wide spectrum, whose common element was being opponents of the government of Hugo Chávez, but it was dissolved in 2004.

Alianza Bravo Pueblo (AVP – Bravo the People Alliance): 1 representative. This is a party that was formed in 2000 from a division of AD that supported Antonio Ledezma, who became their main leader and in 2008 became the Metropolitan Mayor of Caracas.

At the present time Antonio Ledezma is in gaol, accused of participating, together with Leopoldo López and María Corina Machado, in the plan called "La Salida", that sought to overthrow President Maduro.

Movimiento Progresista de Venezuela (MPV – the Progressive Movement of Venezuela): 4 representatives. The Movimiento Progresista arose from a division in the political party Patria Para Todos (PPT), following two years of internal conflicts due to the break from the coalition with the government of Hugo Chávez, one group called PPT-Maneiro (sympathizers with the government of Chávez) and another PPT (opposition), disputed the symbols of the party months before the presidential elections of 2012.

In their declaration of principles they propose a "mixed economy" where "the State owns the key basic industries, conducted with management criteria and adequate technology. But at the same time, the State should guarantee clear rules for private initiative and legal guarantees in the long term with the aim of promoting it".

One of their main leaders is Liborio Guarulla, indigenous leader and present Governor of the State of Amazonas.

In 2015 they decided to become an organic part of MUD.

Cuentas Claras (CC – Clear Accountablity): two representatives. This is a regional party that was formed in 2004 by Vicencio "Enzo" Scarano Spisso, with strong roots in the State of Carbobo.  Enzo Scarano was Mayor of San Diego, and in 2014 was condemned to ten months in prison and loss of his office by the Supreme Court of Justice, because he refused the order to prohibit barricades in his jurisdiction and collaborated with student protesters who wanted to bring down the Nicolás Maduro government.

Proyecto Venezuela (PRVZL – Project Venezuela): One member. This is a party rooted in Christian-Social doctrine, founded in 1998 by Henrique Salas Römer, one of the promotors of the revocation referendum against Chávez in 2004. According to their ideological principles, the PRVZL defends private property and is pro-market. On many occasions, Proyecto Venezuela has maintained a critical attitude against the rest of the opposition because of the lack of a project of joint action.

Vente Venezuela (VV – Come on Venezuela): One member. This is an organization that highlights the figure of the individual and of property and is strongly critical of what they define as "populism". They propose going beyond the left/right divide which they consider to be obsolete. Their main leader is María Corina Machado, former assembly representative who was removed from office in 2014 after accepting the role of "alternate representative" of Panama in a Summit of the OAS. Together with Antonio Ledezma and Leopoldo López, she signed the plan "La Salida" that aimed to overthrow the government of Nicolás Maduro. Machado was the most visbile leader of the Venezuelan opposition in the demonstrations following February 12, 2014.

Gente Emergente (GE -  Emerging People): one representative. It is a centre-left party that in 2008 broke with the governing PSUV. For the 2010 elections they decided to join MUD.

Convergencia (Conv - Convergence): one representative. This is a conservative party, based on the ideology of the Christian democrats, defender of private property and the family. It rose from a division of COPEI. Their present president is Juan José Caldera.

Fuerza Ciudadana (Citizen Force): one representative. Fuerza Ciudadana is a political party of the social democrat tendency, a regional group that only exists in the Apure State. It was founded on March 11, 2003 by Luis Lippa following a division of the Acción Democrática party.

  Composition by parties of the National Assembly

II. Unity? Inside the Venezuelan opposition

"I don’t want to insist gratuitously, but we have to include La Salida among the great national failures... Today there is a politics that has been successful (going to the ballots for a majority) and we must continue to strengthen it. Here there is no space for a second Salida, if we want to maintain unity. Anyone who wants that, we will put them out" [2]. With these declarations the opposition leader Henrique Capriles Rodonski returned to light the fuse of internal dispute in the Venezuelan right, only a few days after the first electoral victory of the MUD in Venezuela.

The most decisive point in this internal tension was evident during the protests of February 2014, where the rupture could not be hidden. The "Salida" to which Capriles refers is an allusion to the violent protests called for by the radical sector of the opposition led by Leopoldo López (Voluntad Popular), María Corina Machado (Vente Venezuela) and Antono Ledezma (Alianza Bravo Pueblo). But the tensions did not begin there. They were present from the very beginning of MUD that arose as a conglomerate of forces whose only point in common was an electoral alliance with the intention of putting an end to the government of the Bolivarian Revolution. The so-called "unity" is almost a euphemism in the opposition alliance where, as José Vicente Rangel maintained on a number of occasions, irreconcilable tendencies are present, manifested in divergent political strategies.

There is still a sector in the MUD that maintains that in April 2013 (when Nicolás Maduro won by a narrow margin) Capriles allowed himself "to be robbed" of the victory. Capriles, after an erratic initial posture in which he did not recognize the result, including a call "to express rage" in the streets (a call that left seven dead), shifted to a more moderate position and refused to take part in the attempt at destitution in February 2014 and the subsequent calls promoted by the radical wing, whose power to mobilize faded significantly over the past year when the actions they called for received little support.

Other recent moments of conflict in MUD were the removal of their Secretary, Ramón Guillermo Aveledo in 2014 (replaced by the present Secretary Jesús Chúo Torrealba) and the celebration of a controversial process of internal elections to define candidates for the National Assembly in 2015, in which only 25% of the candidatures for the assembly were submitted to a popular vote, while the rest were elected "by consensus" behind closed doors.

What is occurring at present is that the political scenario is obliging the MUD to manage internal tensions in the framework of the National Assembly, where for the first time in 17 years they will have a qualified majority.  How the opposition will administer this electoral victory from their benches will be a central issue in coming months. This is not a simple question for a group of parties only too accustomed to be in the opposition to now take on the role of constructing a real alternative of government. To this we can add the dispute over leadership, as well as tactical differences on the way to politically handle the possibility of attaining executive power.

Once the electoral results were known, one sector began to posit the need to make a direct attack on the public powers and announced their intention to pass a series of laws contrary to the social conquests of the Revolution (among others, the intention of returning to privatizations, of repealing the Labour Law, of "recovering" public powers, etc.).  Capriles, heading another much more moderate sector, emphasizes building an opposition that can demonstrate its capacity as a real alternative of government, with proposals for resolving the economic situation, rather than the revenge sought by the radicals. Because of this, he indicated that the MUD would not make a "boxing ring" of the Assembly, and in an article published on January 3 he had to make clear that "our people can be sure of the strength of the engagement with the social agenda of each of the 112 representatives. The members of the Unity have not come to the National Assembly to take away the little that is left of social benefits"[3].

On the other hand there is the sector that holds the presidency of the Assembly, following the central conflict that divided MUD in recent days. According to the Datanálisis survey firm, the person considered best qualified to preside over the legislative body was Julio Borges, leader of Primero Justicia (the party of Capriles that has the greater number of seats within the MUD block). But in the midst of a media and political dispute, Henry Ramos Allup of Acción Democrática was finally elected by highly extravagant mechanism (a secret vote, made before formally occupying the benches of the assembly), thanks to the support of Voluntad Popular (the party of Leopoldo López). Thus the most radical sector holds the presidency of the National Assembly. From there they will attempt to promote "La Salida" now using the institutional mechanisms to force an anticipated ousting from office of the government of Nicolás Maduro. 

In the installation of the new Assembly, the session in which the election of the Board of Directors was formalized, Ramos Allup openly manifested his intention to put an end to the government within six months, initiating what will be a scenario of strong political dispute. With this, the tensions in the MUD will no doubt increase, since the moderate sector does not appear disposed to damage the victory of 6D by returning to a coup strategy. We should not forget that a majority at the national level would not in any way accept putting an end to the government outside of institutional channels, and that the opposition still does not have a leader who could pull together a vote to return to the Miraflores (presidential) Palace.

07/01/2016

(Translated for ALAI by Jordan Bishop)

Original Spanish source: http://www.celag.org/informe-radiografia-de-la-mud-analisis-sobre-la-oposicion-venezolana-por-agustin-lewit-y-gisela-brito/

Notas:

[1] https://actualidad.rt.com/opinion/eva_golinger/view/125973-mano-sucia-ned-venezuela

[2] http://www.talcualdigital.com/Nota/121698/henrique-capriles-maduro-no-quiere-llegar-a-2019

[3] http://www.primerojusticia.org.ve/cms/index.php?option=com_flexicontent&view=item&cid=149:noticias&id=25591:henrique-capriles-el-camino-esta-trazado&Itemid=468