1.       Since the second decade of the 21st Century and in the coming decades, the most important political, economic and military phenomenon has been and will be the firm willingness of the United States to maintain their world hegemony, their power and their privileges as the Metropolis of an Empire, in the face of the rise and competition of China.

2.       The United States came out of the Second World War in a position of extraordinary military, political, economic, technological and ideological hegemony and, on the strength of that hegemony, organised the world system and their Empire.

3.       Its absolute military hegemony was represented by the exhaustion of the Soviet Union, the second largest victorious power, the unconditional surrender and military occupation of the enemy States, the military presence in Allied territories and the monopoly of the nuclear weapon.

4.       Its absolute political hegemony was demonstrated by the ability to reorganize the domestic political system of the defeated enemies, by the imposition of new constitutions and in these constitutions the clauses prohibiting them from having armed forces.

5.       Their absolute economic hegemony was revealed by the fact that their GDP and exports had doubled during the War; their industrial production had grown by 15% annually; they held 2/3 of the world's gold reserves and produced 50% of the world's total goods and services. Meanwhile their adversaries had had their economies shattered, as had the Soviet Union, their essential ally in the War.

6.       The United States enjoyed enormous prestige and ideological influence, resulting from the victory of the optimistic, joyful and prosperous American Way of Life over the gloomy Nazi vision of society, the economy and the world, with a racist, Aryan, authoritarian and violent organization.

* * *

- From 1939 onwards, a succession of events and actions consolidated or challenged or shook American hegemony, during the confrontation with the Axis, during the clash with the Soviet Union in the Cold War and, from 1979 onwards, in the face of the rise of China.

_____ Franklin D. Roosevelt (1933-1945)

1939, Sept. German invasion of Poland triggers World War II.

1940, Sept. Germany, Italy and Japan sign the Tripartite Pact.

1941, Mar. The Lend-Lease program allowed the US, by helping Britain and the USSR with resources and arms, to commercially penetrate the British Empire and prevent its re-establishment after the War.

1941, Aug. Churchill and Roosevelt sign the Atlantic Charter with the objectives of the war.

1941, Dec. Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor; the US declares war on the Axis.

1943, Feb. Soviet victory at Stalingrad.

IMF and IBRD establish the world hegemony of the dollar.

_____ Harry S. Truman (1945-1952)

1945, May Germany surrenders, ending World War II in Europe.

1945, June, The UN Charter establishes a Security Council of five permanent members with the right of veto.

1945, Aug. US atomic bombardment of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

1945, Aug. Japan surrenders, ending the War in the Pacific.

Dec. 1945 60 million have died in WWII, including 400,000 Americans.

1946, Mar. Churchill's "Iron Curtain" speech at Fulton, Missouri.

1947, Mar. Truman announces financial and political support for anti-Communist Governments.

1947, Jun. The Marshall Plan is the American program for rebuilding Europe.

1947, Oct. GATT, General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, is adopted.

1949, Apr. NATO is created as a military alliance to confront the USSR.

1949, Aug.  Explosion of the Soviet atomic bomb breaks US monopoly.

1949, Oct. Victory of the Communist Revolution in China.

1950, Jun. Korean War (1950-1953) leads to US rearmament.

_____ Dwight D. Eisenhower (1953-1960)

1954, Feb. Test of American hydrogen bomb, 1000 times more powerful.

1954, May,The Viet Mihn takes French stronghold of Dien Bien Phu.

1956, Feb. Kruschev denounces Stalin's crimes and advocates peaceful coexistence.

1957, Oct. The Soviet Union launches Sputnik, the first artificial satellite.

1959, Jan. Fidel Castro's Cuban Revolution is victorious.

1959, Feb. USSR tests the first intercontinental ballistic missile, ICBM.

1960, July. Political divergences cause rift between China and USSR.

1960. US had 1000 atomic bombs in 1953 and 22,000 in 1960.

1961, Jan. Eisenhower denounces the "military industrial complex".

1961, Sep. Creation of the Non-Aligned Movement.

_____ John F. Kennedy (1961-1963)

1962, Oct. Crisis of Soviet missiles deployed in Cuba.

_____ Lyndon B. Johnson (1963-1968)

1964, Oct. Explosion of China's first atomic bomb.

1967. US troops in Vietnam reach 525,000 men.

1968, Jul. Nonproliferation Treaty grants privileges to five states.

_____ Richard Nixon (1969-1974)

1969, Jul. US Apollo 11 Mission takes first man to moon.

1971, Aug. US abandons free convertibility of dollar into gold.

1971, Oct. The PRC takes its seat on the UN Security Council.

1972, Feb. Nixon visits China.

1972, May, 1972 SALT-1 Treaty recognizes strategic parity and begins détente.

1973, Dec. OPEC reduces oil supply, the price of which quadruples.

1974 August Nixon resigns.

_____ Gerald Ford (1974-1976)

1975, Apr. North Vietnamese take Saigon.

1975, Oct. Helsinki agreements on borders in Europe and human rights.

_____ Jimmy Carter (1977-1980)

1979, Jan. Islamic revolution in Iran; hostages taken at US Embassy.

1979, Dec. Soviet Union invades Afghanistan.

1979. Deng Xiaoping begins economic reforms.

1980. Interest rate policy of 20% to contain inflation in the USA.

_____ Ronald Reagan (1981-1988)

1981. Beginning of aggressive US neoliberal policy, in alliance with Thatcher.

1983, Mar. Reagan announces the Strategic Defense Initiative (Star Wars).

1985, Mar. Gorbachev becomes SG of the CPSU and begins perestroika and glasnost.

1986, Apr. Chernobyl nuclear reactor accident.

_____ George H. W. Bush (1989-1992)

1989, Nov. The Berlin Wall is toppled.

1990, Feb. Gorbachev withdraws 380,000 men from the GDR in return for a commitment to non-expansion of NATO and agrees to German reunification.

1991, Feb. The US defeats Iraq, which withdraws from Kuwait.

1991, Dec. Disintegration of the Soviet Union into 15 independent states.

1991, Dec. Yeltsin assumes power in Russia.

1992. Bin Laden launches Jihad against American troops in Islamic lands.

_____ Bill Clinton (1993-2000)

1994, Jan. The North American Free Trade Agreement enters into force.

1994, Apr. Creation of the World Trade Organization (WTO).

1994, Dec. The negotiation of the Free Trade Area of the Americas begins.

1997. The Project for the New American Century (PNAC) advocates global hegemony and American capacity to wage multiple simultaneous wars.

1998. Russian GDP shrinks by 50 per cent.

1999, Dec. Boris Yeltsin resigns and Vladimir Putin replaces him.

_____ George W. Bush (2001-2008)

2001, Mar. Bush rejects the Kyoto Protocol on greenhouse gases.

2001, Sept. Terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center towers and the Pentagon.

2001, Sep. Bush announces the War on Terror.

2001, Oct. US attacks Afghanistan.

2003, Mar. The US invades Iraq and the regime of Saddam Hussein falls.

2004, Mar. Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia join NATO.

2004, Apr. US legitimises Jewish settlements in Palestinian territory.

2004, May. The EU expands to 25 members with the accession of ten eastern European countries.

2007. Start of the US financial crisis.

2008, May. Creation of UNASUR, without American participation.

2008. There were about 1,000 American bases abroad and 6,000 bases in the USA.

_____ Barack Obama (2009-2016)

2009. The US participates in the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiations.

2009. Quantitative easing (monetary expansion) policy recovers US economy.

2011, Aug. For the first time Standard and Poor's downgrades US credit rating.

2011, Dec. CELAC, Latin American and Caribbean Community, created without the US.

2011, Dec. China becomes largest trading partner of all Asian countries.

2012, Nov. Xi Jinping is elected General Secretary of the CCP Central Committee.

2013. US launches the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).

_____ Donald Trump (2017-2020)

2017, Jan. Inauguration of Trump, businessman, entertainer, outsider, ultraconservative.

2017, Jan. Trump proclaims his "America First" motto.

2017, Jan. The United States withdraws from the Transpacific Partnership (TPP).

2017, Jan. The US decides to build a wall on the border with Mexico.

2017, Feb. The US recognizes Jerusalem as Israel's capital.

2017. The US withdraws from the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership.

2018, May The US withdraws from the Nuclear Agreement with Iran.

2018. Trump imposes tariffs on Chinese imports.

2019, Jan. US agrees to "pause" additional tariffs and China agrees to buy more US agricultural products.

2019, Mar. US recognises Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights.

2019. Phase 1 of China/US trade agreement signed.

2019, Jun. Trump and Kim Jong Un meet at the DMZ (Demilitarised Zone).

2019, Jul. Turkey buys S-400 air defence systems from Russia.

2019, Nov. US announces it will withdraw from the Paris Agreement on climate.

2019, Nov. US stops considering Israeli settlements in the West Bank as a violation of international law. All 14 Security Council members oppose it.

2019, Dec. EU begins registration of Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV), financial mechanism to promote trade with Iran in the face of US sanctions.

2020, Feb. Pandemic begins, in Wuhan, China.

2020, Dec. Coronavirus deaths reach 400,000 in US and 4,500 in PRC.

_____ Joe Biden (2021)

2021, Jan. Re-entry of the US into the Paris Climate Agreement.

2021, Jan. Re-entry of US into World Health Organization (WHO).

2021, Jan. Permitted entry of persons from several Muslim countries.

2021, Jan. Preference determined for purchase of US-produced goods.

2021, Jan. 2 trillion plan to combat COVID and help unemployed.

Jan. 2021 Construction of Wall on border with Mexico halted.

Feb. 2021 Perseverance probe reaches Mars.

* * *

- The Charter of the United Nations defines the principles of the international system that must be obeyed by all States, from the most powerful to the weakest, in their relations with other States.

- The principle of self-determination states that each State has the right to organize its political, economic and social life in accordance with its historical evolution and according to its own procedures, without other States being able to interfere or determine which principles of organization of the State, economy and society are to be obeyed. In the United Nations system, in which all States are sovereign, there are no international standards of social, economic and political organization which States have to obey.

- However, in the real world, there is an Empire. The Empire of current times is the American Empire which, in the face of these events, transforms itself every day in the execution of the strategic objective of maintaining its hegemony.

- Hegemony on a world level is the capacity to:

- make States accept, even if some reluctantly, a vision of the world in which the hegemonic State is the centre of the international system;

- organize and lead the world political system

- organize world production, trade and finance in such a way as to 'peacefully' capture for the Metropolis of Empire a greater share of the World Product for the use of its population, and most especially its hegemonic classes and highest officials;

- impose the agenda of international politics;

- punish the governments of States that refuse to accept or deviate from the (informal) norms of its operation.

- In the real world, the Metropolis of the Empire informally imposes on its "Provinces" the norms that must be complied with by them.

- The 190 member States of the United Nations, each formally sovereign, are bound to the Metropolis of the American Empire by a network of political, economic and military agreements and by implicit acceptance of norms set by the Metropolis of the Empire, i.e. the United States of America.

- With the exception of Russia and China, which are Adversaries of the American Empire, the other 190 UN member states are Provinces of the Empire.

- The (informal) standards of the Metropolis for its "Provinces" are:

• capitalist economy, open to foreign capital;
• reduced entrepreneurial and regulatory intervention of the State in the economy;
• equal treatment of national and foreign capital companies;
• guaranteed free remittance of profits by subsidiaries of foreign companies
• broad access for foreign companies to natural resources, in particular minerals
• broad access for foreign companies to domestic markets for goods and services
• adequate protection of intellectual property rights
• free access to the media, including the Internet;
• access and freedom of action for foreign NGOs;
• a multi-party political regime with periodic elections;
• respect for human, civil and political rights
• a policy of religious tolerance;
• absence of autonomous armed forces in doctrine and equipment
• non-development of industries in the areas of weapons of mass destruction
• no conclusion of agreements, especially military ones, with Russia and China
• absence of cooperation with the "rebel" Provinces;
• support for American actions regarding Russia and China and the "rebel" Provinces.

- Among these informal norms the Metropolis considers of great importance:

• a capitalist economy, open to foreign capital
• reduced intervention, both entrepreneurial and regulatory, by the state in the economy
• broad access of foreign companies to natural resources, especially minerals
• broad access for foreign companies to domestic markets for goods and services
• adequate protection of intellectual property rights;
• non-development of industries in the areas of weapons of mass destruction;
• absence of cooperation with the "rebel" Provinces;
• support for American actions, regarding Russia and China and the "rebel" Provinces.

- And the Metropolis considers of essential importance

• the guarantee of free remittance of profits by subsidiaries of foreign companies.

- The Metropolis tolerates, for convenience and depending on the internal and external circumstances of each State ("Province"), the deviation of a "provincial" government's behaviour from one or other of these norms. Nevertheless, the Metropolis exerts constant pressure to force compliance, in view of the mission that the Metropolis assigns to itself to defend and enforce the American values that it considers universally valid and that would be embodied in these "norms".

- These states, formally and legally sovereign, are for this reason politically, economically and militarily Provinces of the American Empire.

- In the imperial system, of crucial importance for its very existence and functioning, are the relations of the hegemonic classes of the individual Provinces to the hegemonic classes of the Metropolis of the Empire, and of the provincial hegemonic classes to each other.

- Modern "Provinces" are not like the Colonies of the Roman Empire and those of the British Empire were. They are not governed directly by representatives of Washington. They are formally independent and sovereign states, administered by officials of the local hegemonic classes, who must 'obey' certain informal 'norms' enumerated in paragraph 15 above, which, when disobeyed, render them rogue States (“Provinces”) subject to unilateral sanctions imposed by the Metropolis of the Empire, or multilateral ones articulated by the Metropolis.

*.*.*

- A major question that plagues the hegemonic classes, their representatives in Governments, and even the upper and middle economic, professional and intellectual classes of the "Provinces" of the Empire, is how to interpret and act in the face of signs of decline of the United States, the Metropolis of the Empire.

- Some of the important signs of decline of the United States of America are:

• deteriorating infrastructure;
• increasing concentration of income
• slow economic growth
• significant channelling of resources into financial market speculation
• widespread drug consumption
• growing social antagonism as a result of racism, xenophobia and income inequality
• the growth of extreme right-wing movements;
• the spread and cult of violence.

- Some individuals see these signs of decline with hope as they condemn the unilateral and aggressive imperial nature, dominance and action of the United States.

- Certain scholars view American decline with apprehension as they consider the United States the last and strongest bulwark of Western, Christian, capitalist and democratic civilization.

- Some analysts consider that the signs of decline have to do with the economic, political and ethical decay of American society and the over-extension of the Empire.

- Other scholars consider the relative American decline a result of the rise of China. Still others consider that the American situation reflects that decadence to which is added the rise of China.

- Finally, more optimistic, others trust in the dynamism of the American economy, in the values of its society and the Power of its State to reverse this decline.

- One also major issue for the hegemonic classes and which is twin to the issue of the decline of the United States, is how to evaluate the future of the dizzying rise of China and how to act in the face of this phenomenon.

- Some consider that the People's Republic will continue its rapid pace of growth and overtake the United States in terms of nominal GDP in the next decade.

- Analysts consider that China will face serious environmental problems and growing social tensions due to worsening income disparities, despite having eliminated extreme poverty by 2020.

- Other scholars point out that China will reveal its imperial nature and exert pressure on its neighbours, especially in sovereignty issues in the South China Sea, creating a hostile regional environment.

- Others consider that China's export and import capacity will increase as well as the large surpluses it enjoys and that China will continue to be an increasingly important partner of its surrounding countries, including 'Western' countries such as Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand.

- Faced with possible combinations of hypotheses about American decline and Chinese rise the governments of the "Provinces" tend to take different attitudes.

- The Governments of some "Provinces" adopt a position of alignment with the Metropolis, especially those Governments that are weaker or more dependent and those more ideologically identified with the United States, such as Australia and Japan.

- Other Provincial Governments, such as some European countries, intend to take a neutral position, trying not to take sides in this conflict.

- Others consider that there is an opportunity to "play" in this conflict, in order to obtain advantages in exchange for alignment with one side or the other.

*.*.*

- The political and technical capacity of the Government of the PRC to face the 2020 Pandemic, the vitality of the Chinese economy to grow, during and despite the Pandemic, compared to the American inability to face the Pandemic from a scientific, economic and political point of view, and the division of American society, fostered by Trump and reflected in the 74 million votes he received, are facts that have contributed to strengthen the Chinese image in the world.

- In addition, the PRC has made significant technological, scientific and industrial advances as a result of increasing investment in research and development. Almost all the members of the Standing Committee of the CCP Politburo have engineering degrees.

- China graduates every year more than 10,000 PhDs in engineering and about 500,000 graduates in engineering;

- China is the country that publishes the most scientific papers and registers the highest number of patents;

- Chinese supercomputers are considered the most powerful in the world;

- The ten largest photovoltaic energy companies in the world are Chinese;

- Nine of the world's top ten wind energy companies are Chinese;

- China produces 80% of the 17 most important rare earths;

- China produces more than 50% of the world's steel;

- China in 2020 became the world's second largest arms producer;

- China in 2019 launched the first spacecraft to land on the hidden side of the Moon;

- China is the leader of the drone industry, with 70% of the world market;

- In 2016, the first commercial jet designed and built entirely in China was introduced.

- China will increase investment in applied research by 7% each year and in basic research by 10%, in the coming years. Some of the priority areas will be genetics; biotechnology; neuroscience; artificial intelligence; quantum information; semiconductors.

- However, the aggressive anti-China propaganda, promoted initially by President Trump, with the support of important leaders of the Democratic Party, not only in the United States but in all the "Provinces", has sought to spread and "fix" the idea of the existence of an "evil" nature of China and of a confrontation between two Empires, two systems, two societies that are  radically different.

* * *

- Some analysts consider that the rise of China could lead to an armed conflict with the United States because this rise harms the economic interests of the Metropolis of the American Empire, its leadership and hegemony and the very human values of capitalism and democracy.

- The Metropolis of the American Empire, whose dynamics lie in its technological-industrial-military complex; in its worldwide network of branches of mega-companies; in the command positions it occupies in international bodies; in its alliances with the hegemonic classes of each of its Provinces; and in its willingness to use force, is unlikely to remain resigned and tranquil in the face of its decline and replacement by Chinese hegemony or by a multipolar world that would emerge from a new human solidarity.

- On the other hand, due to the economic challenges of the struggle for development and the political challenges it faces, the People's Republic of China has no interest in conflict with the United States.

- Moreover, there is an important symbiosis between the Chinese economy and the American economy in terms of trade, investment and the investment of Chinese reserves in American bonds, a symbiosis whose dissolution would seriously affect both countries.

- However, whether it leads or not to direct or indirect armed conflicts, the rivalry and competition between the United States and China will affect all the "Provinces" of the American Empire, among them Brazil, one of its largest and most potential "Provinces".

*.*.*

- Brazil is the fifth country in the world in territory; the sixth in population; it was one of the ten largest economies in the world until 2019, and with the Pandemic it has become the twelfth economy; it has a varied range of soil and subsoil resources; a large potential consumer and investment market; an important industrial park to be modernized.

- It has a highly cohesive society in terms of language, religion and ethnicity, but it is a highly vulnerable country from the internal point of view, whose primary cause is the extreme concentration of income. Externally, Brazil is highly vulnerable in political, military, economic, technological and ideological terms.

- The importance of the United States for Brazil is extraordinary, because

• Brazil is located in the most important strategic zone for the United States, the Western Hemisphere, considered by the US its "natural" zone of influence since the proclamation of the Monroe Doctrine in 1823;
• the US is an important trading partner of Brazil, including for industrial products; both as an importer and exporter;
• the USA is the most important investor in the Brazilian economy, both in physical assets and in securities on the stock market;
• the US is the most important supplier of technology to Brazil;
• the US is the most important centre for the formation of young Brazilian political and economic leaders;
• American cultural/ideological influence is predominant in the formation of the imaginary of the hegemonic classes and of the population. It is exercised through literature, including technical literature, music, audiovisual production in the cinema, on TV, on the Internet, and through the network of institutions of language (and culture) training, and exchange programs;
• the Brazilian federal, presidential, multi-party political system, with periodic elections, is similar to the American system
• Brazilian society values such as individualism and freedom of speech are similar to American society values.

- China's importance for Brazil is growing because:

• China is the main importing country of Brazilian products;
• China is the main exporting country to Brazil;
• China is making increasing investments in Brazil, which amounted to 80 billion dollars in the last decade;
• China is the main member of the BRICS;
• China is the main trading partner of Argentina and the second of Paraguay and Uruguay;
• China is the main shareholder of the New Development Bank, in which Brazil participates;
• China can be an important partner in the process of resuming Brazil's industrial development;
• on the other hand, the Chinese political and economic system is different from Brazil's, as are several of the values of Chinese society;
• Brazilian society considers itself, explicitly or implicitly, an underdeveloped Western society, while Chinese society is an oriental society in a very rapid and conscious development process.

March 15 2021

(Translation ALAI)

- Ambassador Samuel Pinheiro Guimarães – Itamaraty Secretary General (2003-09); Minister of Strategic Affairs (2009-10)

Originally published: https://jornalggn.com.br/geopolitica/a-ascensao-da-china-e-o-imperio-americano-por-por-embaixador-samuel-pinheiro-guimaraes/